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Autumn Budget 2026: What’s Confirmed, What’s Rumoured and How to Plan
07 Oct 2026
By James Clark, Tax Partner
The Autumn Budget lands on Wednesday 28 October. It will be the first from Chancellor John Healey and the first under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, and new leadership at the Treasury brings fresh priorities and plenty of guesswork about what comes next.
A shorter run-up, and a quieter one
Last year’s Budget arrived on 26 November after months of briefing and counter-briefing. This year it comes four weeks earlier, and the Prime Minister has said the date was chosen to shorten the period of uncertainty. There have been far fewer leaks too.
That is welcome news for anyone who found last autumn’s rumour mill exhausting. It also means Budget day itself could hold more surprises than usual.
The public finances are tight. The Chancellor has said the Budget will meet the government’s fiscal rules and keep a buffer against uncertainty. At last year’s Budget that buffer stood at around £22 billion. Higher borrowing costs, the conflict in the Middle East and new cost of living measures have eaten into it, and economists’ estimates of what remains range from about £5 billion to £10 billion.
Most commentators expect some tax rises alongside tighter control of spending.
What we know for certain
A handful of measures are already confirmed or firmly promised.
- Business rates for pubs and venues. Pubs, social clubs and live music venues in England will get 20% off their business rates bills from April 2027. The very largest music venues are excluded, and the full eligibility rules are due at the Budget. Business rates are devolved, so our clients in Wales should wait for the Welsh Government’s own decisions.
- Wider business rates reform. The government has promised more detail on Budget day, including changes to Small Business Rates Relief.
- VAT on household electricity. The rate is 0% from 1 October 2026 until 31 March 2027. The Chancellor may say whether it continues beyond that.
- Help for first-time buyers. A new Your First Home equity loan scheme is expected to be confirmed, with the detail to follow on the day.
What has been ruled out
The new government has committed to keeping Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledges. That means no increase in the rates of income tax, employee National Insurance or VAT. The main rate of corporation tax stays capped at 25%, with full expensing and the annual investment allowance kept in place.
The Prime Minister has also said this Budget will keep stamp duty and council tax, so a wholesale replacement of property taxes is off the table for now.
The wording of those pledges matters. They cover headline rates. Thresholds, allowances and reliefs sit outside them, and that is where recent Budgets have raised most of their money.
What is being talked about
Everything in this section is speculation. None of it has been announced.
Capital gains tax. This is the most talked-about candidate. The Prime Minister has long argued that the UK taxes work more heavily than wealth, and some Labour MPs want CGT rates moved closer to income tax rates. The main rate rose from 20% to 24% in October 2024. Modelling, including HMRC’s own, suggests a further straightforward increase could reduce the amount collected, which may explain why this talk has cooled in recent weeks.
Inheritance tax reliefs for farms and family businesses. During the Makerfield by-election campaign, Andy Burnham said the changes to Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief needed looking at again. Farming groups are pressing him to follow through at this Budget. The rules that took effect on 6 April 2026 remain in force: 100% relief on the first £2.5 million of qualifying property per person, and 50% relief above that.
Property. Reports suggest the threshold for the High Value Council Tax Surcharge, due to start in 2028, could fall from £2 million to £1.5 million. A land value tax has its supporters, the Prime Minister among them, but looks unlikely this year.
Income tax thresholds. Thresholds are frozen until April 2031. The Prime Minister has acknowledged concerns about the freeze, but the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that restoring inflation-linked increases from April 2027 would cost around £8.4 billion a year. An early thaw would need funding from tax rises elsewhere.
Pensions. Tax relief and tax-free cash come up before every Budget. After the reaction to last year’s cap on salary sacrifice, most commentators see major pension changes as an outside chance.
Small business rates. One rumour has the Small Business Rates Relief threshold rising from £12,000 towards £17,000. Another would move holiday lets in England from business rates to council tax.
Changes already on the way
Several changes are already set, whatever is announced on 28 October. These deserve attention now.
- Pensions and inheritance tax. Unused pension funds come into the scope of inheritance tax from 6 April 2027.
- Benefits in kind. Payrolling of benefits in kind becomes mandatory for employers from April 2027.
- Making Tax Digital for Income Tax. The rules extend to sole traders and landlords with qualifying income over £30,000 from April 2027.
- Cash ISAs. The annual cash ISA limit falls to £12,000 for savers under 65 from April 2027.
- Pension salary sacrifice. The National Insurance saving is capped at £2,000 of contributions a year from April 2029.
Sensible planning
Good planning starts from the rules in force today and from your own goals.
- Keep long-term decisions on a long-term footing. Ahead of recent Budgets, some savers withdrew pension tax-free cash to beat a change that never came, and many could not reverse it. A rumour on its own is a poor reason to sell an asset, restructure a business or draw on a pension.
- Talk to us early if a transaction is already planned. A business sale, a gift, a property purchase or a succession plan may be affected by timing. Knowing your position before 28 October lets you move quickly once the detail is published.
- Use the allowances available now. Pension contributions, ISA subscriptions, the £3,000 capital gains annual exempt amount and inheritance tax gifting exemptions all apply under current rules.
- Farming families and business owners: keep succession plans moving. A change to the reliefs is possible, and the current rules apply until one is announced.
- Employers: budget for the known changes. Payrolling benefits in kind from April 2027 needs payroll and software preparation well ahead of the deadline.
A final word
A Budget from a new Chancellor is a good prompt to look at your plans with fresh eyes.
If the rules change, we’ll help you adapt. If they stay as they are, you’ll have had a useful review of your finances.
Either way, the weeks around the Budget are a great time to get informed.
Join us at one of our Autumn Budget 2026 seminars to hear what the announcements mean for you and your business, and enjoy refreshments and networking with other local business owners.
We’ll also share a clear, practical summary once the speech is over. Until then, your usual WR Partners contact is the best person to talk to about how any of this could affect you.
This article reflects information available on 6 October 2026. It is general commentary and should not be relied on as advice for your individual circumstances.
